You know the launch market is tough when satellite companies start building rockets

There are optimistic plans for spaceflight, and then there are optimistic plans.

AST SpaceMobile is a Texas-based, publicly traded company building very large satellites to provide direct-to-cell communications on Earth. But it has been having trouble finding rides to space. So on Friday, AST announced that it is developing a medium-lift rocket, named Blacklift, which will have the capacity to lift 20 metric tons to low-Earth orbit. Oh, and the company said it would start launching commercially in late 2028.

“The Blacklift rocket is the springboard to significantly expand our total addressable market, providing AST SpaceMobile with regular unconstrained access to orbit and providing for most favorable owner’s economics in the industry,” said Abel Avellan, founder, chairman, and CEO of AST SpaceMobile, in a news release.

To anyone with even a basic understanding of rockets, that timeline is wildly, fantastically, and stupidly optimistic. Still, the announcement is worth examining because it underscores two important trends in today’s launch industry.

First, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that satellite operators planning to deploy large constellations need to secure launch capacity years in advance, as Amazon did nearly half a decade ago. And if they can’t secure that capacity on favorable terms, they are now considering taking the extraordinary step of developing their own rockets.

And secondly, since investors are now recognizing the worsening launch crisis that Ars has been writing about for months, there is apparently capital to be raised for new entrants into the medium-lift launch market. AST is not the only company making fantastical claims of late. A firm called Cowboy Space said in October it was building a large rocket named Big Iron (full credit—that’s an excellent name) to launch orbital data centers. It also claimed its large rocket would make its first flight in 2028.